Nuclear Stockpile Growth Surges
According to the most recent “China Military Power Report” from the US Department of Defense, China has increased the number of its operable nuclear warheads from 500 to 600 in a single year, a 20% increase since mid-2023. By 2030, China is expected to have 1,000 operational warheads, according to Pentagon projections, putting the US in a position to compete with two nuclear rivals as China’s arsenal approaches that of the US and Russia.
Nuclear Strategy and Defense Posture
While China maintains its nuclear strategy focuses on self-defense and keeping capabilities at the “minimum level required by national security,” the Pentagon’s findings suggest a more aggressive expansion. Beijing has dismissed US concerns, arguing that Washington uses this issue as justification for pursuing “absolute strategic predominance.”
Military Modernization and Internal Challenges
The report highlights several key developments in China’s military landscape:
- The PLA Rocket Force is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles to enhance nuclear-capable forces
- Progress toward military modernization goals for 2027 has been “uneven”
- A new wave of corruption investigations has emerged within senior military ranks
- At least 15 high-level military officials and defense industry executives were removed in the latter half of 2023
- Notable investigations include Miao Hua, one of the PLA’s top five military officers
Taiwan Timeline and US Assessment
Pentagon officials believe President Xi Jinping has directed the military to develop Taiwan invasion capabilities by 2027, coinciding with the PLA’s centennial. However, US defense officials emphasize that such an attack is neither “imminent nor inevitable,” citing strong current deterrence measures.
Nuclear Arsenal Projections
The Pentagon has taken a more cautious approach in its latest forecast, notably omitting its previous 2022 projection of 1,500 warheads by mid-2030s. A US defense official explained this conservative estimate, noting the increasing difficulty in making long-term projections due to various variables that could influence China’s strategic needs and capabilities.
Leadership Turmoil
The report draws attention to significant leadership changes within China’s military establishment. While US officials have suggested that Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun might be under investigation, Beijing has denied these claims. However, Dong’s two predecessors, Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, have both faced corruption investigations, indicating potential instability in China’s military leadership structure.
Significant changes in leadership within China’s military system are highlighted in the report. Beijing has refuted US officials’ suggestions that Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun may be the subject of an investigation. Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu, Dong’s two predecessors, have also been the subject of corruption probes, though, suggesting that China’s military command structure may be unstable.
